THURSDAY NIGHT
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+3.5), o/u 36.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST
The Steelers turned last week’s game against the Ravens into a slugfest and Mike Tomlin managed to jedi mind trick John Harbaugh into giving Derrick Henry the ball only 13 times, and even then they still needed Justin Tucker to miss two field goals to escape with a home win. Regardless of how Pittsburgh pulled it off, the team has won five consecutive games and sits atop the AFC North. Russell Wilson was under center for the last four, but the game against Baltimore was the first time he didn’t really contribute, and Chris Boswell produced all the offense with six FGs. Wilson’s ugly red-zone INT in the fourth quarter would have drawn a lot more criticism if Lamar Jackson hadn’t thrown a pick himself two plays later, and it was a reminder that not all of his problems in Denver were the fault of Nathaniel Hackett and Sean Payton. During the winning streak, the Steelers have won by an average score of about 28-18, and in the two victories following their bye they’ve held top-notch offenses to 329 yards or less, with the Commanders being the other. The weather Thursday night also figures to work in their favor, if it takes away Jameis Winston‘s deep ball. The home team has won five consecutive meetings in this rivalry, and the Steelers haven’t scored more than 22 points in Cleveland since 2016, but they may not need
THURSDAY NIGHT
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+3.5), o/u 36.5 – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST
The Steelers turned last week’s game against the Ravens into a slugfest and Mike Tomlin managed to jedi mind trick John Harbaugh into giving Derrick Henry the ball only 13 times, and even then they still needed Justin Tucker to miss two field goals to escape with a home win. Regardless of how Pittsburgh pulled it off, the team has won five consecutive games and sits atop the AFC North. Russell Wilson was under center for the last four, but the game against Baltimore was the first time he didn’t really contribute, and Chris Boswell produced all the offense with six FGs. Wilson’s ugly red-zone INT in the fourth quarter would have drawn a lot more criticism if Lamar Jackson hadn’t thrown a pick himself two plays later, and it was a reminder that not all of his problems in Denver were the fault of Nathaniel Hackett and Sean Payton. During the winning streak, the Steelers have won by an average score of about 28-18, and in the two victories following their bye they’ve held top-notch offenses to 329 yards or less, with the Commanders being the other. The weather Thursday night also figures to work in their favor, if it takes away Jameis Winston‘s deep ball. The home team has won five consecutive meetings in this rivalry, and the Steelers haven’t scored more than 22 points in Cleveland since 2016, but they may not need even that much offense to get the job done.
At 2-8, the Browns are currently in line for a top-3 pick in the 2025 draft, and a much-needed new franchise QB. This game looks like it might be the first true Cleveland Weather game of the year, though the wind isn’t quite cranked up to its full passing-game crushing fury. Last week’s embarrassing loss to the Saints was due to the defense not stopping Taysom Hill, and DC Jim Schwartz’s unit has been a shell of its former self — 22nd in QB rating against, 24th in points allowed per game and 27th in yards allowed per play. The offense has shown flickers of life with Winston at the helm — Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, David Njoku and even Elijah Moore have had big performances since the QB switch — but Kevin Stefanski has been reluctant to unleash Nick Chubb since he made his return from knee surgery, and last week’s low workload in New Orleans was apparently deliberate with a quick turnaround ahead. Chubb routinely had games with 20-plus carries prior to the injury, which happened in Week 2 of the 2023 season … against the Steelers. Hmm. That’s a very different revenge game narrative. If the weather, or the Pittsburgh pass rush, neutralizes Winston, it’ll be on Chubb and Myles Garrett (the Browns are third in pressure rate, but only tied for ninth in sacks) to manufacture an upset.
Key Info
PIT injuries: WR Roman Wilson (IR, hamstring), EDGE Alex Highsmith (out, ankle), LB Cole Holcomb (PUP, knee)
CLE injuries: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (IR, neck)
DFS Lineup Optimizer
PIT DFS targets: George Pickens, Steelers DST
CLE DFS targets: none
PIT DFS fades: none
CLE DFS fades: Browns DST
Weather notes: temperature in the mid-30s, 10-15 mph wind, 75-85 percent chance of rain/snow
The Scoop
Najee Harris churns out 80 yards and a touchdown, while Jaylen Warren adds 60 scrimmage yards and a TD. Wilson throws for less than 200 yards but finds Pickens for a score. Chubb manages 60 yards and a touchdown. Winston throws for less than 200 yards as well, gets sacked five times and tosses a pick-six to Minkah Fitzpatrick. Steelers 31-10
Last week’s record: 10-4, 11-3 ATS, 7-6-1 o/u
2024 record: 105-61, 83-81-2 ATS, 83-82-1 o/u
